Naira depreciation has cut japa rate: Tinubu's aide cites advantages of Naira depreciation

The Special Adviser to the President on Economic Affairs (Office of the Vice President), Tope Fasua, has argued that the ongoing depreciation of the naira has inadvertently reduced the number of Nigerians seeking to migrate abroad. Fasua made this observation on Thursday, January 16, during a panel discussion at the 2025 Annual Outlook Conference, where he addressed the effects of the naira's decline and the implications of the 2025 national budget.

In his remarks, Fasua acknowledged the complexities of the naira’s devaluation, pointing out some unexpected benefits it could offer. He explained that while the naira’s value in dollar terms may seem insignificant, its rising volume—up from N30 trillion to N49 trillion—could present a unique opportunity for leveraging purchasing power parity (PPP) for local economic growth. 

“There are a couple of advantages,” Fasua said. “For instance, in dollar terms, our budget may not seem particularly impressive. However, when we consider the local economy and look at what the naira can buy, we begin to see opportunities. For example, $10 in New York might not even cover your lunch, but in Nigeria, that $10 converts to about N16,000. This is the power of PPP, and we intend to focus on enhancing the local economy through this lens.”

However, Fasua also acknowledged that the depreciation of the naira comes with its challenges, particularly its impact on inflation. Despite these challenges, he highlighted an unexpected consequence of the naira’s decline: a reduction in the rate of migration, or the “Japa” trend. 

“On one hand, the depreciation of the naira has fueled inflation,” he said. “But on the other hand, it has led to a decrease in the number of Nigerians considering emigration. Before, you might have been able to secure a ticket to the UK for around N1.5 million to N2 million. Now, that same ticket may cost you N4 million or even N5 million for an economy seat. As a result, many Nigerians are beginning to rethink their options and are less inclined to leave the country.”

While the soaring cost of travel may deter some from leaving, Fasua’s point underscores a broader economic shift in Nigeria. The increased cost of migration, alongside rising domestic economic opportunities tied to PPP, may encourage more people to focus on contributing to the country’s growth. This presents a nuanced take on the naira’s depreciation: while it creates challenges, it also compels Nigerians to reconsider their migration plans and invest in their homeland, potentially stalling the outflow of talent and resources.

Fasua’s reflections raise important questions about how economic shifts can lead to unforeseen changes in migration patterns. As Nigeria navigates these turbulent times, it may find new ways to harness the potential of its local economy—turning challenges into opportunities for growth and stability.